UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcdd1bdd0e813858d89368f331411e665fbd6cb2fad8db43eb4c56f6df59aefa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb107…3046backed Under | 42c | 38,069$16,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,096.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 58c | 24,250$13,946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,304.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 57c | 5,008$2,854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.29 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 59c | 4,040$2,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.78 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Over | 61c | 2,592$1,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 39c | 2,572$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,003.18 | 200 | 48.5%97 W · 103 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…1581backed Over | 58c | 2,490$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,045.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Over | 60c | 1,555$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…12a2backed Over | 61c | 942.54$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.54 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 59c | 921$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.23 | 417 | 54%225 W · 192 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Under | 42c | 554.02$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.69 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Over | 60c | 524.93$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.97 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…b4bebacked Over | 62c | 403.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.24 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +6.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Over | 60c | 333.33$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 60c | 216.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 40c | 201.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 60c | 159.13$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.71 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Over | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 57c | 120$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 41c | 107.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe650…0944backed Under | 40c | 82.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…7661backed Over | 62c | 79.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf7…afa8backed Under | 40c | 75.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…cad7backed Over | 61c | 68.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 59c | 58.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe840…733cbacked Over | 58c | 56.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.61 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 60cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8421…0a8bbacked Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…4d1ebacked Over | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +59%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb3…2a32backed Under | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 58c | 34.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.29 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Under | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b4…2329backed Under | 40c | 25.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Over | 60c | 20.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a60…ea7dbacked Over | 58c | 17.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)Christian Leroy Duncan won
- Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jared Cannonier win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.