UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x272bb273a9395f770a5f8bc588175d7c3e2c2f87dcc8455f2232db934eebda8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,775
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,775 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bfe…2d74backed No | 52c | 3,013$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.77 | 61 | 72.1%44 W · 17 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Yes | 48c | 2,931$1,407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.71 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 51c | 2,507$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.64 | 267 | 36%96 W · 171 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 49c | 2,082$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.22 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…63cfbacked Yes | 54c | 1,699$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.37 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 52c | 1,600$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d9…5333backed Yes | 58c | 1,505$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.91 | 58 | 63.8%37 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed No | 41c | 1,504$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.78 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Yes | 52c | 1,407$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.56 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 51c | 1,076$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.32 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 50c | 1,075$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.07 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes | 48c | 922.37$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.63 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…83b8backed Yes | 54c | 874.2$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.14 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 36c | 849.1$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.77 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 48c | 621.42$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.42 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…971abacked No | 58c | 591.61$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.47 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 49c | 590.83$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.09 | 209 | 33.5%70 W · 139 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed No | 52c | 576.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.82 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 51c | 552.11$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.53 | 300 | 39.3%118 W · 182 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…4e0dbacked No | 50c | 511.76$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf807…c5dcbacked Yes | 47c | 499.99$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed No | 51c | 495.62$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.77 | 150 | 48.7%73 W · 77 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 51c | 400$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…8faebacked Yes | 48c | 399.77$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.77 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 45c | 394$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.07 | 381 | 53.5%204 W · 177 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3784…8e66backed No | 21c | 368.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked No | 58c | 362.62$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Yes | 51c | 294.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.11 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 63c | 261.34$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.99 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Yes | 55c | 258$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a63…5dcebacked No | 52c | 255.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 49c | 249.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked No | 51c | 230.92$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.77 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked No | 47c | 224$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2b…4090backed No | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed No | 63c | 159.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 44c | 113$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe426…f4ffbacked No | 50c | 108.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed No | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -56%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 46c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…5bd8backed Yes | 43c | 66.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…20fbbacked No | 66c | 59.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed No | 55c | 57.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da2…22b6backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 49c | 52.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…30b5backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 283 | 33.2%94 W · 189 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…fcf8backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8271…1b26backed No | 53c | 48.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1c…2679backed Yes | 51c | 43.65$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed No | 47c | 38.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f5…fa9fbacked Yes | 79c | 38.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfec…b0edbacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 49c | 34.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked No | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -6.6wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x249a…f923backed Yes | 44c | 32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279e…8f57backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 38c | 29.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -83%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9511…e88ebacked Yes | 51c | 27.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c8…1badbacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0b…0874backed Yes | 51c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 84 | 77.4%65 W · 19 L | +11.1wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 73c | 22.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb31c…e5a1backed Yes | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0817…b071backed Yes | 50c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ea…c677backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Jared Cannonier vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (Middleweight, Main Card)Christian Leroy Duncan won
- Will Christian Leroy Duncan win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Jared Cannonier win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.