Earnings · resolved market
Will Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce08c35369b22136c2b87c62f648a160d16c6fb05b63e79f7d48df4149e51c16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 37c | 514.14$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 73c | 235.25$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…7849backed Yes | 67c | 166.5$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 31c | 149$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes | 41c | 147.94$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.66 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea0…e19dbacked Yes | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 54c | 87.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…c2e6backed Yes | 71c | 67.93$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 64c | 67.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa2…05aabacked Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +96.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 35c | 57.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 28c | 41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 63c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf057…ab54backed Yes | 63c | 31.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | -7.8wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 34c | 31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb598…14fcbacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +97.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Amazon say "Tariff" during earnings call?this page
- Will Amazon say "America" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Anthropic" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Data Center" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Delivery" 10+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Amazon say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?No won
- Will Amazon say "Middle East" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Prime Day" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Prime" 10+ times during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Robotic / Robotics" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Supply Chain" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Amazon say "Third Party Seller" during earnings call?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.