Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce1a838fc45ffc886a3897b825720781ce9b6ca92983a2c1fad3ecd383789170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,721
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 4c | 999.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 39c | 396.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 55c | 392.11$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.15 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 289.49$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.62$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.94 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 24c | 263.92$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.65 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 238.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.72 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 225.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 220.63$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.2 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 217.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ab…6938backed Yes | 13c | 192.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.3 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 190.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 52c | 182.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.24 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 10c | 181.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 14c | 175.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.18 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 46c | 149.96$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.98 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 55c | 123.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 44c | 121.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.58 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 14c | 116.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 52c | 113.53$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 104.09$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 27c | 96.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…439fbacked Yes | 18c | 91.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.28 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc84…4871backed Yes | 51c | 81.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked No | 60c | 75.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.17 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 66c | 72.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 36c | 71.94$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 17c | 71.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 21c | 62.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 40c | 61.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 56.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 52c | 55.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 54.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 63c | 53.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…ea54backed No | 58c | 49.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 284 | 41.2%117 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 54c | 47.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 33c | 41.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 28c | 39.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 36c | 38.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 66c | 37.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed Yes | 39c | 33.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 40c | 31.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 30.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 62c | 29.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 63c | 27.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed Yes | 63c | 26.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 57c | 24.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 50c | 22.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 22.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 76c | 19.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 18.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.