Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdab25e801f228ae981f07c0687fa21b81396a8f6b4b738a9a36a706462d3f6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,817
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,817 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 71c | 582.76$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.49 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 60c | 450.87$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.24 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 31c | 445.67$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.46 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 44c | 405.95$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.87$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 237.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 220.19$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.96 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 186.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 29c | 153.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 60c | 152.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.34 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked Yes | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…e888backed No | 70c | 144.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 78 | 71.8%56 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 133.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 131.85$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 131.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 50c | 129.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 126$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 45c | 118.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 62c | 108.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.52 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 104.02$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.55 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 103$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5efb…5e3bbacked Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +47%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 31c | 98.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 25c | 97.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 55c | 90.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d8…52d5backed Yes | 25c | 83.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 32c | 80.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 60c | 78.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…0897backed No | 63c | 74.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 49c | 72.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 28c | 68.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 80c | 68.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 41c | 67.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.63 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 52c | 66.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 72c | 66.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 48c | 64.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 63.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 71c | 52.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d4…6297backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 70c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 41.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 45c | 39.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 47c | 39.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 57c | 34.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 47c | 33.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 45c | 32.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 59c | 32.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 30.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 69c | 29.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 63c | 27.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 51c | 26.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 55c | 24.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 46c | 23.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 48c | 21.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or below on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.