Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce4a641a566aac81cca69be0ba13122e55fd42a0b1db42631751a6707b322422
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,474
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,474 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes | 67c | 1,318$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.58 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 36c | 769.3$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.84 | 795 | 27.9%222 W · 573 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 60c | 699.54$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.54 | 264 | 33.7%89 W · 175 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed No | 40c | 499.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 221 | 16.7%37 W · 184 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 418.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6b5dbacked Yes | 67c | 244.37$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.72 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec7…12f7backed No | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 41c | 226.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 42c | 223.26$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.62 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 76c | 214.84$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 41c | 206.23$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.8 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 55c | 187.2$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…cacdbacked Yes | 68c | 184.91$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 35c | 180.5$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.82 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 178.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 46c | 177$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.42 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 158.13$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 58c | 144.1$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 1,156 | 31.1%359 W · 797 L | -38.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 113.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 2,340 | 58.7%1,373 W · 967 L | -4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.06 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 54c | 110.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 494 | 49.2%243 W · 251 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8373…f0bcbacked No | 25c | 109.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 241 | 58.5%141 W · 100 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 55c | 105$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 127 | 32.3%41 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 27c | 99.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 63c | 95.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.53 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 43c | 93.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 91.38$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 90.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 256 | 53.9%138 W · 118 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 75c | 89.69$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 901 | 55.7%502 W · 399 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 39c | 84.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 6,891 | 39.4%2,717 W · 4,174 L | +269.8wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 39c | 77.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 73c | 71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 305 | 26.9%82 W · 223 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,177 | 34.9%411 W · 766 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa387…3d3cbacked Yes | 73c | 70$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d955backed No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 43c | 67.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 43c | 60.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 41c | 58.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 27c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fac…a428backed Yes | 59c | 51.82$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 58c | 51.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 55c | 51.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 59c | 51.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.97 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 73c | 44.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 45c | 43.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 96 | 61.5%59 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 43c | 42.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 39c | 41.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x940e…e290backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 33.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 189 | 52.4%99 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 1,826 | 62.9%1,149 W · 677 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 42c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…ae41backed Yes | 58c | 31.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…b4b5backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 45c | 29.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 46c | 29.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 220 | 45.9%101 W · 119 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 42c | 28.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 211 | 46.9%99 W · 112 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 59c | 22.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 67c | 22.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbb…d41cbacked Yes | 59c | 22.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 508 | 60.8%309 W · 199 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.