Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fbdbf34e4d109c3c7259bbcfb2c79db45cef92abe31a3ba7c5939a16a467ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 631.3$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.08 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d04…6298backed Yes | 24c | 538.82$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc17…886abacked No | 74c | 396.96$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 83 | 80.7%67 W · 16 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 70cpaid | +16%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 333.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,523 | 15.4%234 W · 1,289 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…a42dbacked Yes | 7c | 249.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 228 | 25.9%59 W · 169 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 248$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 244.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 24c | 240$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 10c | 180.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 8c | 157.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 207 | 11.6%24 W · 183 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 8c | 151.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed No | 79c | 145.35$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 75c | 141.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 22c | 139.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…f1e1backed Yes | 25c | 134.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf3…2286backed Yes | 22c | 133.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 132.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 24c | 115.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 296 | 42.6%126 W · 170 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 11c | 112.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 293 | 37.5%110 W · 183 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 21c | 111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 97.73$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 77c | 73.35$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 22c | 71.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 78c | 70.8$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 25c | 69.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 67.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 7,592 | 37.5%2,849 W · 4,743 L | +96.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 77c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 227 | 71.8%163 W · 64 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 23c | 59.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 478 | 45.2%216 W · 262 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 194 | 21.6%42 W · 152 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 18c | 58.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f8…773cbacked No | 77c | 57.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 69cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c3…f0a1backed Yes | 26c | 54.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xff42…e0ffbacked No | 75c | 52.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 50.48$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 23c | 47.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,421 | 31.1%442 W · 979 L | -93.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 78c | 44.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 329 | 38.3%126 W · 203 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 77 | 67.5%52 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9077…9c3fbacked No | 76c | 38.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 76c | 32.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 358 | 64%229 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 20.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2,189 | 59.7%1,306 W · 883 L | +26.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…a665backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed No | 76c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 75c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…1588backed No | 78c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 73c | 18.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2799…b1e1backed No | 76c | 17.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.13 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.