WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce5bb9b9169e0d7609a7bd148be8bc414935672ceef48dff1917aafa56c971a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Dreamof Atlanta Dream, Indiana Fever
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fe8…06c9backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 58,985$28,393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,392.93 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e05…7720backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 58,287$30,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,060.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 3,299$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,583.32 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafe4…f3f7backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 3,279$1,574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,573.85 | 274 | 49.6%136 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1316…48a4backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 2,002$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.8 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb84…5fb5backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 1,573$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 1,491$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.94 | 785 | 48.8%383 W · 402 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed Atlanta Dream | 60c | 1,161$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.78 | 230 | 49.6%114 W · 116 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 1,010$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.57 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 932$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.36 | 127 | 51.2%65 W · 62 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 874.89$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.64 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc48…c120backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 600.38$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.18 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 486.23$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.53 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 458.46$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.87 | 922 | 48.8%450 W · 472 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eab…7e13backed Atlanta Dream | 54c | 447.9$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.03 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 399.78$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.89 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 324.34$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.64 | 837 | 48.1%403 W · 434 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Indiana Fever | 50c | 301.8$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.9 | 344 | 48%165 W · 179 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 281.56$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.38 | 749 | 42.3%317 W · 432 L | -21.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…1dfcbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 232.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8228…b2fbbacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 226.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 41.2%49 W · 70 L | -12.0wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Atlanta Dream | 52c | 205.66$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.72 | 327 | 43.7%143 W · 184 L | -23.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 199.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 159.94$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.24 | 323 | 46.7%151 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Indiana Fever | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 399 | 47.1%188 W · 211 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Indiana Fever | 23c | 99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 349 | 18.3%64 W · 285 L | -49.5wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Atlanta Dream | 51c | 97.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 229 | 67.7%155 W · 74 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 96.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a15…e238backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Atlanta Dream | 45c | 90.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 610 | 42.5%259 W · 351 L | -31.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 54.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 284 | 47.9%136 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 53.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…5fdfbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7497…18cebacked Atlanta Dream | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Atlanta Dream | 51c | 37.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 426 | 49.3%210 W · 216 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c9…bc74backed Atlanta Dream | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…fd82backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3186…2a53backed Atlanta Dream | 48c | 24.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d2…4268backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Indiana Fever | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-4.5)this page
- Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta DreamAtlanta Dream won
- Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 175.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 176.5Over won
- Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 177.5Over won
- Spread: Atlanta Dream (-5.5)Atlanta Dream won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.