MLB · resolved market
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce5cf9e731cb3b7445db99f5ea34ed917c3cadcd4d59dd979defb6c7b17fbf16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6027…4320backed Athletics | 58c | 820.37$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.81 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 595$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed Athletics | 60c | 320$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 1,483 | 50.2%745 W · 738 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 290$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Athletics | 15c | 219$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 207$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Athletics | 57c | 185$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 217 | 48.4%105 W · 112 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 160$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.8 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Athletics | 57c | 140$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Athletics | 59c | 119.49$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 113.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Athletics | 58c | 113.14$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 45c | 107.96$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 99.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.85 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 92.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726c…6bfdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Athletics | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Athletics | 30c | 57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Athletics | 37c | 53.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…47c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 41.41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc6…fc33backed Athletics | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Athletics | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…50e2backed Athletics | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…916dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 29.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6e…8fe0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Athletics | 57c | 23.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fe…8243backed Athletics | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc990…80bbbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 61c | 19.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.