Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce8dddc62d6b631b0fd09ea9c3b47e5e96342645c846e6e9e8daf306b198b96f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Fritz, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,125
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf377…4159backed Nakashima | 61c | 11,139$6,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,301.42 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Fritz | 39c | 2,308$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Fritz | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima | 60c | 1,209$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.98 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Fritz | 39c | 1,002$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.67 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc144…c809backed Fritz | 40c | 925.15$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3705…9677backed Fritz | 39c | 908.85$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.45 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nakashima | 60c | 875$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fritz | 39c | 723.61$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.4 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafef…f50ebacked Fritz | 37c | 637$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.69 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Fritz | 9c | 629.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…536fbacked Fritz | 39c | 596.75$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.73 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbedb…6bc3backed Fritz | 40c | 587.21$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.72 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5700…a854backed Fritz | 39c | 538.19$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.5 | 255 | 44.3%113 W · 142 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…29cbbacked Fritz | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 51.3%139 W · 132 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…b1e1backed Fritz | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x820a…ca12backed Fritz | 39c | 463.59$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.85 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Nakashima | 61c | 435.03$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.71 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Nakashima | 61c | 375.15$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 852 | 50%426 W · 426 L | +22.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e8…14ffbacked Fritz | 39c | 373.82$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.79 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…0002backed Fritz | 38c | 299.98$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.99 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…497dbacked Fritz | 39c | 266.67$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x419b…6ea1backed Fritz | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5519…f7e1backed Nakashima | 61c | 200.14$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Fritz | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 394 | 51.8%204 W · 190 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf8…27cfbacked Fritz | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Fritz | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Fritz | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 878 | 54.7%480 W · 398 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Fritz | 39c | 124.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 275 | 49.1%135 W · 140 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Fritz | 39c | 124.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 710 | 21.3%151 W · 559 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…be99backed Fritz | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Fritz | 43c | 121.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b5…df9bbacked Fritz | 39c | 116.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 207 | 40.1%83 W · 124 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Nakashima | 62c | 101.93$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 285 | 43.5%124 W · 161 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Nakashima | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa171…f921backed Fritz | 37c | 88.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…2f1bbacked Fritz | 39c | 85.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 291 | 48.5%141 W · 150 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Fritz | 38c | 82.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Fritz | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Fritz | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Fritz | 39c | 70.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6add…6992backed Fritz | 52c | 65.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…9a9bbacked Nakashima | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Nakashima | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Nakashima | 67c | 41.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 115 | 53.9%62 W · 53 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c71…4fbabacked Nakashima | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Nakashima | 62c | 39.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 553 | 47.6%263 W · 290 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4604…56f1backed Fritz | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Fritz | 36c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Nakashima | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 603 | 41.1%248 W · 355 L | -26.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs NakashimaNakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs NakashimaFritz won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.