Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf71979187d6c95990719ee968c5ae50fdd00e95ae624141500311bd445e33de9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Fritz, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Fritz | 14c | 4,200$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.28 | 487 | 38.4%187 W · 300 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Nakashima | 49c | 3,135$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.74 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd403…a817backed Fritz | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 0%0 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…732ebacked Fritz | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 353 | 54.4%192 W · 161 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc408…7f32backed Nakashima | 43c | 1,163$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.79 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Fritz | 41c | 1,030$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.46 | 400 | 46.8%187 W · 213 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nakashima | 40c | 926.66$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556 | 2,444 | 51.3%1,254 W · 1,190 L | +14.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fd…104cbacked Fritz | 63c | 904.76$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 314 | 51.9%163 W · 151 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Fritz | 63c | 878.91$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.23 | 2,887 | 39.5%1,141 W · 1,746 L | -84.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b1…51b8backed Fritz | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe846…252bbacked Fritz | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 134 | 38.8%52 W · 82 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Nakashima | 39c | 562.06$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.06 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Fritz | 67c | 503.65$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.98 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nakashima | 43c | 500$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.88 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc5…d36ebacked Fritz | 60c | 488.86$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17e2…d472backed Nakashima | 36c | 487.05$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.05 | 155 | 32.9%51 W · 104 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafee…881ebacked Nakashima | 39c | 482.44$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.29 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Fritz | 57c | 412$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.84 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Nakashima | 36c | 349.23$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa3…dc66backed Fritz | 64c | 291.69$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Fritz | 53c | 284.12$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.18 | 5,498 | 48.5%2,667 W · 2,831 L | +10.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Nakashima | 66c | 213.99$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 91 | 49.5%45 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…9c8dbacked Nakashima | 42c | 209.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.26 | 109 | 27.5%30 W · 79 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fritz | 58c | 200.24$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Nakashima | 75c | 200.08$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.02 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Fritz | 59c | 186.78$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x877b…fa0bbacked Nakashima | 41c | 140.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.99 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Nakashima | 74c | 133.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.03 | 850 | 57.5%489 W · 361 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Fritz | 61c | 131.58$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.27 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Fritz | 41c | 125$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.92 | 755 | 43.4%328 W · 427 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed Nakashima | 41c | 122.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.59 | 156 | 20.5%32 W · 124 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Fritz | 69c | 115.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.97 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Nakashima | 43c | 92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.66 | 364 | 34.3%125 W · 239 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Fritz | 60c | 82.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Fritz | 62c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b1…8e7dbacked Nakashima | 43c | 74.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Fritz | 53c | 71.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4011…4a39backed Nakashima | 35c | 68.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.57 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Nakashima | 36c | 66.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…9591backed Nakashima | 42c | 50.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…7cf3backed Fritz | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa882…61afbacked Fritz | 41c | 39.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Nakashima | 41c | 36.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 593 | 47.4%281 W · 312 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4a…3026backed Fritz | 59c | 36.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…c980backed Fritz | 61c | 30.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 74 | 75.7%56 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b6…6eb8backed Fritz | 60c | 26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…0a15backed Fritz | 60c | 24.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Fritz | 61c | 24.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 427 | 45.7%195 W · 232 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Fritz vs Nakashimathis page
- Cincinnati Open: Taylor Fritz vs Brandon NakashimaBrandon Nakashima won
- Set 2 Winner: Fritz vs NakashimaFritz won
- Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Nakashima (+1.5)Nakashima won
- Taylor Fritz vs. Brandon Nakashima: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.