Commodities · resolved market
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce97f9b110b3d7d73f28dfe34c6322940d18f1d04b0f2428646d0df01016d6d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,329
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Down | 42c | 1,584$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Down | 42c | 688.77$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.28 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -67%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…2fd8backed Down | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Down | 33c | 283$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.3 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Up | 22c | 195.57$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf92…7e3fbacked Up | 63c | 161.66$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae46…a663backed Up | 48c | 161.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…ad5bbacked Down | 51c | 150$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385e…3896backed Down | 20c | 142.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Down | 41c | 140$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf665…0f03backed Up | 79c | 118$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c2…82e8backed Up | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…d8dcbacked Down | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24f7…75fbbacked Down | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 48c | 93.73$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x093d…3ae2backed Down | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7c…b0ecbacked Up | 53c | 90$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…4947backed Up | 64c | 75.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 56c | 50.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb63f…793cbacked Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Up | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f95…458ebacked Down | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b8…65e8backed Down | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…7660backed Up | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ca05backed Down | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2858…119dbacked Down | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…0f7ebacked Down | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Down | 42c | 46.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2116…eb8fbacked Up | 30c | 46.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8832…1fc4backed Up | 72c | 40.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Up | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…c8eabacked Down | 44c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…ebf4backed Up | 51c | 24.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…9a96backed Up | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.