Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce999652d16054b6c76aecb49233c7381eebb615cdacba7c36f5d484324f64c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd202…8973backed No | 73c | 49,753$36,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,433.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 24,254$6,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,548.54 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 14c | 4,428$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.59 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 27c | 3,000$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 27c | 2,295$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.68 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 26c | 2,196$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.54 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 1,912$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.85 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 24c | 1,410$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.79 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked No | 73c | 1,348$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.87 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,277$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.04 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 7c | 1,237$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 27c | 1,062$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.83 | 146 | 52.7%77 W · 69 L | +11.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85e5…9343backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 27c | 725.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 27c | 725.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 27c | 725.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 27c | 725.05$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.81 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 27c | 703.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 27c | 703.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 27c | 703.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.07 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 27c | 655.25$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.92 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked No | 73c | 544.46$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…8904backed Yes | 28c | 509.15$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 27c | 422.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.05 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 27c | 385.34$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.9 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86be…4490backed Yes | 28c | 307.54$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked No | 73c | 269.53$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.77 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 207.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…ef64backed Yes | 28c | 205.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 27c | 197.71$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…4413backed Yes | 8c | 193.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 121 | 41.3%50 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 173.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3be…c163backed Yes | 7c | 149.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Yes | 28c | 136.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5465…ba43backed No | 73c | 134.77$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 27c | 128.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Yes | 18c | 126.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 28c | 109.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 11c | 97.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 11c | 94.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x738e…dc37backed Yes | 27c | 84.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 24c | 79.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad9…3cb4backed Yes | 28c | 78.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +69.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 28c | 66.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 57.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Yes | 27c | 56.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked Yes | 27c | 56.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Yes | 27c | 48.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed No | 73c | 45.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 120 | 56.7%68 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…6e76backed Yes | 28c | 41.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 27c | 40.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -9.2wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 75c | 39.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 73c | 28.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked No | 77c | 19.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 73c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 77c | 15.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.