Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb56c0163267ce2fa9041329cf2d350a19198cb70409ed821e01441f5d156dbdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,586
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,586 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 7,386$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 70c | 5,181$3,627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,554.35 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b70…6ccebacked Yes | 30c | 4,471$1,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,341.2 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 3c | 3,081$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…d28bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,877$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 1,844$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.41 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 1c | 1,717$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,621$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f354backed Yes | 10c | 1,347$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 4c | 1,201$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 69c | 1,129$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.5 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 27c | 1,063$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.09 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…294cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,030$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 4c | 982.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.51 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 11c | 738$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 530.51$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.15 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 31c | 489.29$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 31c | 483.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 31c | 483.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.92 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 31c | 478.51$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -7.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51af…8720backed Yes | 15c | 447$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 71c | 345.46$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.18 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 69c | 329.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.14 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4791…07f8backed Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 37cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Yes | 31c | 309.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed No | 69c | 305.32$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.65 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 10c | 273.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 31c | 265.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.27 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Yes | 30c | 233.32$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 30c | 198.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.45 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 158.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 31c | 155.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Yes | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 70c | 118.94$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 71c | 115.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 71c | 115.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 185 | 54.1%100 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 71c | 115.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 71c | 115.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 71c | 115.14$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…ff77backed Yes | 28c | 114$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 69c | 103.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 31c | 98.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Yes | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Yes | 31c | 87.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 70c | 84.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 18c | 79.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed No | 71c | 63.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Yes | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9f…b23bbacked No | 69c | 59.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…e5eabacked Yes | 31c | 58.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed No | 70c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed No | 69c | 39.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 70c | 22.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed No | 66c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 69cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed No | 69c | 19.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 68c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will 1. FC Köln vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.