CS2 · resolved market
Will Karrigan retire by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb508b035b18379fabcdf0c4b0563325eb2c5a7751504bf075c4de551620e02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefcf…76dbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,381$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,027$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Yes | 3c | 915.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 333 | 54.4%181 W · 152 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 654.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 70 | 0%0 W · 70 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 3c | 460.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…fc40backed Yes | 2c | 451.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 3c | 434.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 5c | 332.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807c…f1e3backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dd…a02abacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…9b98backed Yes | 52c | 92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d2…b34bbacked No | 48c | 92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4255…6dd5backed No | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd83…c0c2backed Yes | 52c | 59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…89a4backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e74…68c1backed Yes | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…ba0bbacked Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -7.6wins | -0.29per pick | 60cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…d54ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507a…be1fbacked No | 71c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.