MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xceb9fd650db1c8d6c041e6bf55a2fdcf28af2f8dcab6073c8d21a9bf0ab60c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,199
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,199 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed No | 80c | 395.32$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.06 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaee4…c3b9backed No | 55c | 353.82$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.22 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Yes | 20c | 327.47$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.49 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 40c | 144.68$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.97 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 45c | 102.7$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 59c | 98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.02 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 51c | 87.28$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…bd04backed No | 57c | 86.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Yes | 45c | 74.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 43c | 57.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Yes | 31c | 57.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Yes | 73c | 43.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cef…9d08backed No | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 43c | 29.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed No | 55c | 29.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked No | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…9b4bbacked No | 68c | 25.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x078e…7ba8backed No | 55c | 22.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giantsthis page
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.