MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb99c021ed0cca82ad020c3edb02b1daa1b93089a9621d35b19a311fdc1cc57e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Francisco Giantsof San Francisco Giants, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8929…733ebacked San Francisco Giants | 14c | 1,199$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.42 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 799.41$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Miami Marlins | 65c | 541.82$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.18 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…dd23backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 534$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.44 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Francisco Giants | 28c | 456.96$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.94 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 417.61$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked San Francisco Giants | 35c | 399.46$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.65 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Francisco Giants | 27c | 267.86$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.61 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 226.75$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.83 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Francisco Giants | 29c | 226.65$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed San Francisco Giants | 34c | 198$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.68 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 145.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.57 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 80c | 139.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.46 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 100.01$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked San Francisco Giants | 36c | 89.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.13 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 69.44$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.44 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed San Francisco Giants | 31c | 69.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd747…ead8backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.74 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Miami Marlins | 73c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 54.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Francisco Giants | 40c | 53.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Francisco Giants | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 64c | 49.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Miami Marlins | 78c | 32.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 34c | 31.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed San Francisco Giants | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed San Francisco Giants | 37c | 28.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 21.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Miami Marlins | 59c | 18.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 16.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.