MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb10c345ebc9de2684ac7dc0e75d21142062870255dd2fb426f40c9489ee6263
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e4a…311cbacked Over | 47c | 16,699$7,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,850.41 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a44…9cc6backed Under | 53c | 14,434$7,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,637.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…3da3backed Under | 53c | 5,260$2,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,772.41 | 169 | 47.9%81 W · 88 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 48c | 2,003$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.58 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 53c | 1,814$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.51 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 49c | 1,578$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.55 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 1,466$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.29 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…b78abacked Over | 61c | 1,106$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 48c | 1,050$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 51c | 951.19$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.11 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 900.77$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 51c | 771.32$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.37 | 338 | 52.7%178 W · 160 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 745.5$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.68 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 737.97$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.74 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 656.62$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.44 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 48c | 650.06$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.03 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 582.36$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 70c | 532.2$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.59 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 48c | 512$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.87 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 73c | 496.58$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.95 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 42c | 480.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.56 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 51c | 402.8$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.43 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b55…1167backed Under | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.72 | 108 | 60.2%65 W · 43 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 323.97$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 308.52$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 50c | 291$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.5 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…424bbacked Under | 50c | 252.2$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 56c | 245.79$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.19 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Under | 51c | 236.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.78 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 50c | 217.99$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.82 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 52c | 184.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 51c | 161.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 49c | 144.42$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.65 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 48c | 140.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.06 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 34c | 133.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed Under | 50c | 123.76$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 60c | 110.27$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5a2fbacked Under | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Under | 15c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -10.3wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Under | 49c | 87.19$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cc…36d1backed Under | 52c | 85.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b71…80ecbacked Over | 49c | 79.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 47c | 76.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 69.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 49c | 62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Under | 49c | 59.35$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 50c | 58.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 56.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 47c | 52.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 35c | 49.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 50c | 48.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 59c | 47.56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 52c | 46.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 53c | 45.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 47c | 43.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 73c | 43.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 78c | 42.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Under | 53c | 42.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 42c | 40.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa945…110fbacked Over | 63c | 34.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 31c | 34.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6efb…01afbacked Over | 48c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Under | 52c | 26.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9f…b100backed Under | 56c | 26.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 47c | 25.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Over | 65c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Over | 44c | 23.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Under | 58c | 19.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 67c | 18.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Over | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 63c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Miami Marlins vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.