Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf1d15ac5cddb4fbf90c6e5c28c91febfd8a03e7c59886fa0e76b07019be2f92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,636
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 427.36$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.94 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 5c | 327.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 35c | 298.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.13 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 24c | 225.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.09 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 199.16$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.33 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 8c | 196.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 71c | 183.01$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 127.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.63 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 27c | 123.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.92 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 17c | 106.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.51 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 105$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 101.81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 96.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 72c | 94.49$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 20c | 86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 51c | 83.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 24c | 82.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.22 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 66c | 76.93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 65c | 67.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 65c | 64.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 73c | 63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 62.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 70c | 57.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 54.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 75c | 54.83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 20c | 54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 55c | 53.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…fb01backed No | 77c | 51.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 74cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a60…be51backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.15 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 57c | 39.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 50c | 37.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 33c | 34.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed Yes | 45c | 33.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 31.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 61c | 28.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 76c | 25.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 55c | 23.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 60c | 22.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486a…296cbacked No | 73c | 20.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 76c | 19.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed No | 69c | 14.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…4501backed No | 73c | 14.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.