Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f64ad7434641a6aff8bc9e9239930b2af0f2aa773cfc80762280b4f2c7e18d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1c2…ea48backed No | 67c | 471.81$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 53c | 226.65$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.79 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd115…4906backed Yes | 73c | 203.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.75 | 135 | 88.1%119 W · 16 L | +26.4wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 190.94$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 39c | 190.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.34 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 34c | 177.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes | 11c | 153$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 88 | 30.7%27 W · 61 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 70c | 128.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 59c | 116.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.3 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 76c | 114$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 33c | 105.39$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…0bb7backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…95bebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 87 | 17.2%15 W · 72 L | -7.9wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 99.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 50c | 98.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 55c | 85.76$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…7ff0backed Yes | 49c | 85.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 85.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 59.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 31c | 54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 45c | 50.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8220…2d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 58c | 44.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 54c | 40.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 60c | 39.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 66c | 38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 37.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 29c | 37.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 71c | 33.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 58c | 30.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 58c | 22.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b55…0c2abacked No | 48c | 22.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 21.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eec…c8edbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 197 | 69.5%137 W · 60 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1073…d8babacked No | 80c | 13.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.79 | 48 | 79.2%38 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.