Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac54a2d501d24c387e40e1a8dbbee7b7f27560c90b56d8bcbd505d57dd046c03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,850
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,850 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6e9…0741backed Yes | 28c | 425.68$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8242…6577backed Yes | 25c | 363.03$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed No | 67c | 262.58$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 34c | 252.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 75c | 218.92$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc1…ee2fbacked No | 78c | 212.7$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 91 | 39.6%36 W · 55 L | +12.2wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 28c | 203.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 73c | 193$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.72 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…a32abacked Yes | 37c | 162$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 216 | 33.8%73 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 72c | 138.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 51c | 129.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.75 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 71c | 128.27$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…bbf5backed No | 79c | 106.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +12.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 104.51$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 99.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 41c | 87.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 66c | 87.18$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4708…9580backed Yes | 29c | 79.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 57c | 76.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 48c | 72$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 68c | 68.22$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 65.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfb69…06a9backed No | 76c | 65.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa5…7059backed No | 70c | 61.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 61c | 60.38$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…e98fbacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf4…f4c3backed Yes | 45c | 55.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 26.7%31 W · 85 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 27c | 54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 53.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 25c | 47.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274c…61dfbacked No | 72c | 40.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 66c | 40.47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 68c | 39.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 57c | 36.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 38c | 35.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 34.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 71c | 33.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 65c | 32.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 24.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 67c | 22.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 65c | 18.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 18.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 72c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eba…7ff0backed No | 77c | 15.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C or higher on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.