Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf82ee625a7f9a138d294e36647e24eb82c8f6d902c8492b948836856d31b9f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,206
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,206 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 163 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9689…65cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,297$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 39c | 880.55$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.02 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 40c | 738.91$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 41c | 521.68$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.05 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 73c | 505.72$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.3 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 498.01$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…c5dcbacked Yes | 73c | 495.62$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 57c | 475.59$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.55 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 45c | 411.24$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.32 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 34c | 342.43$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 28c | 303.09$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.28 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 80c | 299.74$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 269.56$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 25c | 241.4$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 31c | 234.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.47 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 42c | 223.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.91 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 42c | 212.78$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.14 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x178b…0c67backed Yes | 43c | 202.25$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.21 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 193.28$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 34c | 178.55$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.44 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 55c | 176.43$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.52 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 63c | 172.46$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.2 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 37c | 172.35$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 61c | 171.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 41c | 167.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 11c | 159.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 50c | 156.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 36c | 152.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 77c | 148.12$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d3…e2bcbacked Yes | 69c | 145.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 67c | 143.15$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6a…bf42backed Yes | 72c | 137.44$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 73c | 134.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 69c | 127.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.43 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 78c | 126.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.75 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 60c | 113.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.64 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 112.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.71 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 48c | 106.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 42c | 105.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 105.74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 37c | 101.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 69c | 98.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 40c | 96.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 37c | 96.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 46c | 94.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 89.97$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.32 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 77c | 88.82$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 21c | 81.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 79.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 53c | 79.12$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 40c | 77.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 62c | 76.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 34c | 71.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 49c | 71.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…ca53backed No | 66c | 70.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 69c | 69.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 53c | 68.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 70c | 68.73$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 50c | 68.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 64c | 67.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 40c | 67.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 62c | 66.19$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 64.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 56c | 62.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 54c | 62.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce34…cf97backed Yes | 34c | 60.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…0339backed Yes | 46c | 60.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 46c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5a3ebacked Yes | 31c | 59.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 23c | 59.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 58c | 58.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 56.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 56.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 25c | 54.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.83 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…c3acbacked No | 71c | 54.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 28c | 54.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 45c | 53.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d56…92e6backed Yes | 54c | 51.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 49c | 50.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 54c | 50.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…e03cbacked Yes | 74c | 50.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38cc…d5cfbacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 70c | 49.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 48c | 49.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 60c | 48.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 47c | 47.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 52c | 47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 52c | 46.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 60c | 45.95$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 57c | 45.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 77c | 44.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 29c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.