Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3f706b6a724bed2947c96a95200aa6da21f027a01ab97598435b3f1d3535574
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 20c | 1,023$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.12 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes | 64c | 967.04$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.63 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 770.11$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 21c | 691.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.71 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 599.61$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 30c | 470.49$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.32 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 32c | 438.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 29c | 378.86$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.37 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 359.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 38c | 285.87$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.6 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked No | 77c | 273.42$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.69 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 16c | 225.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 71c | 219.72$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.64 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 208.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.46 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 24c | 206.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.03 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 205.15$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.22 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 200.75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.47 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 193.15$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.52 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes | 30c | 167.91$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.27 | 114 | 23.7%27 W · 87 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 39c | 164.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.67 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 41c | 160.87$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.31 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 13c | 149.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.01 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 73c | 145.61$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.93 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 63c | 130.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 130.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.58 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 29c | 126.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 53c | 121.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 119.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.73 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 49c | 116.66$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 111.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.97 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 44c | 109.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 103.81$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.83 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 22c | 103.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 78c | 102.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 75c | 99.05$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 92.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 92.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 90.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.43 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 28c | 89.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 37c | 88.17$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 33c | 85.91$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 84.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 83.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 22c | 80.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.03 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 41c | 79.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 21c | 69.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff9b…6a02backed Yes | 30c | 62.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 158 | 34.2%54 W · 104 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 59.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…9aeebacked Yes | 46c | 58.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 58.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 27c | 56.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 55.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 54.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 48c | 54.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 33c | 53.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes | 35c | 52.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 72c | 52.17$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 69c | 51.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 47.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 44.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 43c | 43.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 80c | 43.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…e5bfbacked No | 80c | 43.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +35%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes | 59c | 40.65$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 80c | 39.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 73c | 38.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 77c | 37.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 28c | 37.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 37.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…508ebacked Yes | 33c | 35.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…48c4backed No | 64c | 34.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 49c | 29.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 35c | 29.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 75c | 27.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e2…be4bbacked No | 73c | 26.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 77c | 25.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 44c | 25.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 66c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe45…fd22backed No | 80c | 22.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 70c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 53c | 19.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 73c | 17.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 77c | 13.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.