TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,504
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,251

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,504 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes20c1,023$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$822.1257614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1f7…dae0backed Yes64c967.04$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.639747.4%46 W · 51 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes45c770.11$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes21c691.74$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.7142130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No57c599.61$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes30c470.49$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.3217135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes32c438.58$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.5418668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes29c378.86$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.3710053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes13c359.88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.851,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d46…dc46backed Yes38c285.87$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.62441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d81…259bbacked No77c273.42$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.699756.7%55 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes16c225.93$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.541046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x6240…c294backed No71c219.72$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.649462.8%59 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes22c208.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.4617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes24c206.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.0345148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes20c205.15$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.229,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes20c200.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.4765627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes28c193.15$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.521,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ea…a65fbacked Yes30c167.91$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.2711423.7%27 W · 87 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes39c164.55$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.6750648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes41c160.87$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.319428.7%27 W · 67 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-12.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes13c149.89$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0195933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes73c145.61$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.937682.9%63 W · 13 L+27.3wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x6ad7…347abacked Yes63c130.97$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.3172952.4%382 W · 347 L+34.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c130.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.581,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d78…5678backed Yes29c126.46$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.223834.2%13 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No53c121.73$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.537,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c119.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.734,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca41…8486backed Yes49c116.66$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.077939.2%31 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes17c111.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.971,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes44c109.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.9625239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No47c105$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3514944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No78c103.81$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.831,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes22c103.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9920631.6%65 W · 141 L-23.6wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-38.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No78c102.74$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.862,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x309c…09b5backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2028839.9%115 W · 173 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7012033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7530131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes75c99.05$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2129953.8%161 W · 138 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No74c92.18$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.331,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes18c92.11$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9210,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes19c90.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.431,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes28c89.28$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2811938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf10e…4308backed Yes37c88.17$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3723673.3%173 W · 63 L+28.6wins+0.12per pick61cpaid+27.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes33c85.91$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.5318948.1%91 W · 98 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No57c84.3$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.961,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c83.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.482,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb608…881ebacked Yes22c80.39$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.0318842.6%80 W · 108 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes41c79.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.621,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes21c69.18$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.4923738%90 W · 147 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff9b…6a02backed Yes30c62.04$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4515834.2%54 W · 104 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No67c59.25$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6480…9aeebacked Yes46c58.67$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.611435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-45.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No78c58.35$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.519277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf55f…8e92backed No69c57.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016548.5%80 W · 85 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes27c56.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.0656131.7%178 W · 383 L+2.6wins0.00per pick31cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c55.48$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.6974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes21c54.26$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.67,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5617…8c67backed Yes48c54.07$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.37518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes33c53.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8735133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0d9…03d2backed Yes35c52.68$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.344158.5%24 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf576…a786backed No72c52.17$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5637669.4%261 W · 115 L+1.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes69c51.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.1626566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c47.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.8167633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No78c44.3$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes43c43.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.13333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes80c43.1$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.734961.2%30 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…e5bfbacked No80c43.1$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.324562.2%28 W · 17 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x001f…fdbbbacked Yes59c40.65$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.692142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36c2…2b8cbacked No74c40.36$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8270770.2%496 W · 211 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf674…8564backed Yes28c40$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.816234%55 W · 107 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No80c39.77$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8119160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b2…21f4backed No73c38.3$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9529770.4%209 W · 88 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick65cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes77c37.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.510780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes28c37.12$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.7319848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c37.08$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.412,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabae…508ebacked Yes33c35.33$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+29.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54f9…cef2backed Yes66c35$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.852850%14 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c5…48c4backed No64c34.91$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.241233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes49c29.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9999961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes35c29.36$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.039346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No75c27.52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7154966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67e2…be4bbacked No73c26.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.476360.3%38 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-11.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3401backed Yes77c25.14$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7827463.9%175 W · 99 L-15.0wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No44c25.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ce…e92abacked No66c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.412467.7%84 W · 40 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8009…3e9abacked No79c24.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.581735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe45…fd22backed No80c22.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.244955.1%27 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes70c20.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.226854.4%37 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4264…1706backed Yes62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.640871.8%293 W · 115 L-0.8wins0.00per pick72cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.656265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No53c19.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6757232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No73c17.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7821338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No77c13.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.641,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.