Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd54044b85d6fe19a629f58bea6b98d27442303e4df0b8537fce67a18cb06c725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,322
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 112 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 48c | 4,956$2,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,362.52 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 60c | 592.96$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.4 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 458.55$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 307.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 23c | 290.83$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bb…e181backed Yes | 23c | 281.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.76 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 22c | 258.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 21c | 246.38$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 12c | 241.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes | 19c | 239.89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 57c | 215.35$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 26c | 212.15$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 75c | 210.61$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.07 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 50c | 202.76$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.51 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 18c | 188.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 26c | 164.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 8c | 161.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 25c | 149.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 77c | 149.55$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 72c | 139.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 129.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b13…6e6abacked Yes | 23c | 129.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 19c | 124.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 25c | 124.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ad…41e0backed Yes | 15c | 123.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589e…c63ebacked Yes | 36c | 117.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed Yes | 18c | 114.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 21c | 114.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 113.87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 23c | 108.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 73c | 107.8$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.89 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 107.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 105.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 103.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 101.7$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…7054backed Yes | 26c | 92.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…b105backed No | 76c | 89.54$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 41c | 82.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 38c | 81.12$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 20c | 76.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 24c | 76.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed Yes | 23c | 75.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…7cf2backed No | 68c | 71.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 57c | 70.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 28c | 66.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 66.04$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 70c | 65.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee38…fd31backed No | 77c | 64.01$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 63.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 22c | 63.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 26c | 63.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 78c | 62.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed No | 62c | 62.34$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 30c | 61.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 76c | 59.49$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…5a3ebacked Yes | 37c | 59.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.32per pick | 40cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 78c | 58.72$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 25c | 57.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 68c | 56.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…e07dbacked Yes | 28c | 53.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 53.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 52.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 48c | 52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cde…b02bbacked No | 53c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 49.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…77c9backed No | 79c | 49.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked No | 72c | 48.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 22c | 47.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b11…9f63backed Yes | 30c | 41.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 15cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf040…d11fbacked No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 80c | 37.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 48c | 35.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0da…4162backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 29.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…5823backed No | 63c | 29.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 78c | 29.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…1df0backed No | 55c | 28.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 28.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 78c | 27.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 75c | 26.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 25.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 76c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 24.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.