Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfa957b15fa11b078ac9c576948708247320079dd5b784dd37eb3a7251842b20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 1,380$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 74c | 368.14$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.72 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 22c | 318.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.7 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca7…7875backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed Yes | 9c | 159.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 23c | 150$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.86 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 26c | 144.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 144.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 19c | 109.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 22c | 109.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 109$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 106.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.69 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 26c | 100.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 100.29$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f4…63d9backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 26c | 91.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 89.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 77c | 84.17$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…b05ebacked Yes | 25c | 79.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 68.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 64.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…5001backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 25c | 57.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 76c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 43.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 36.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 33.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 77c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 77c | 13.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.