Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5458c2405b0e524471f622c687b60bb5c37b9160ad723332c707501faf8c268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,758
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,758 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf393…d509backed No | 64c | 748.52$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.15 | 22 | 100%22 W · 0 L | +9.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 60c | 409.61$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.19 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 317.49$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 256.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 2,265 | 39.6%896 W · 1,369 L | -56.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 37c | 249.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 208.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.81 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 43c | 207.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 53c | 199.8$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 38c | 187.15$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked No | 62c | 156.26$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 34c | 127.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 117.76$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.53 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 33c | 110.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 109.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 108.38$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 38c | 105.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 37c | 101$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…41d5backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…0e08backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…2600backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74f…25c0backed No | 66c | 96.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 96.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…9593backed Yes | 52c | 95.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 38c | 91.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 63c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…a0dcbacked No | 51c | 89.85$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 64c | 88.24$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.86 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked Yes | 39c | 84.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 47c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b48…fcf0backed Yes | 39c | 76.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +50%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 39c | 64.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 60.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac0…071ebacked No | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…5001backed Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 37c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 59.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 35c | 57.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 51c | 56.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 54.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 664 | 43.5%289 W · 375 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 28c | 54.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 52.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 38c | 51.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 50.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 959 | 19.7%189 W · 770 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 62c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 60c | 48.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 46.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 43c | 46.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 56c | 44.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 43.83$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0f…18b4backed Yes | 55c | 41.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 52c | 39.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 38.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 66c | 36.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed Yes | 29c | 35.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 47c | 34.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 482 | 26.6%128 W · 354 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 51c | 34.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 32c | 34.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 40c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2,655 | 47.3%1,257 W · 1,398 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 50c | 30.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 62c | 29.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 28.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 28.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 27.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 37c | 27.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 64c | 22.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeba4…f461backed Yes | 51c | 21.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 68c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.