Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82cf1ec18e0da028d1a8d3b8541c0e8849a3245e6295c3b970e4acdbe90efadb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 2c | 906.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 786.89$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 15c | 705.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 26c | 590.84$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.59 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 5c | 534.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 455.58$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 76c | 316.23$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.83 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 256.28$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.01 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 16c | 233.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 24c | 200$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.93 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 32c | 179.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 179.79$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 76c | 158.08$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 127.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.15 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 75c | 123.61$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 30c | 120.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 63c | 115.27$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 28c | 108.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 106.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 73c | 106.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 29c | 99.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.17 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d8…9dd0backed No | 23c | 94.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 73c | 89.52$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 14c | 89.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.61 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 62c | 82.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 28c | 77.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 70c | 70.2$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 68c | 64.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5d…9593backed Yes | 32c | 61.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Yes | 17c | 58.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 58c | 58.47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…c7d5backed Yes | 79c | 58.31$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +43%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked No | 66c | 57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 56.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…4c83backed Yes | 31c | 55.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 54.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 53.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 51.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 28c | 50.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 26c | 48.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 28c | 47.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 47.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 63c | 44.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fd…977cbacked Yes | 72c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 68c | 37.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…b207backed Yes | 34c | 37.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 27c | 36.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.38 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6572…3968backed No | 80c | 33.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 32c | 31.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…aa80backed Yes | 72c | 27.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 76c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 70c | 22.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 64c | 22.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 69c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c6…ad9dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fa…53cdbacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 74c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 73c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 13.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C or higher on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.