NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pacers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfc7dcdfd830819fd162a087b51d2a0a3dd1bbc9ad8f65b1cf60500081730dce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pacersof Pacers, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce1f…41a9backed Knicks | 48c | 46,623$22,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,590.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Pacers | 51c | 16,421$8,374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,046.73 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Pacers | 52c | 14,325$7,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,876.02 | 464 | 26.1%121 W · 343 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…90c1backed Knicks | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Pacers | 51c | 4,994$2,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,446.99 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed Pacers | 54c | 3,943$2,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,813.84 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +52%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Pacers | 52c | 3,491$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.46 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Pacers | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pacers | 54c | 1,115$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.45 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Knicks | 48c | 993.57$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.48 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Pacers | 58c | 700$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291 | 220 | 41.4%91 W · 129 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks | 46c | 664.53$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.59 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9320…95ddbacked Knicks | 7c | 500$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Pacers | 52c | 314.18$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.81 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f32…3e2cbacked Pacers | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 140 | 41.4%58 W · 82 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Pacers | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 308 | 26.6%82 W · 226 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Knicks | 58c | 116.7$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.02 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Knicks | 47c | 110$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…e26cbacked Knicks | 51c | 100.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.06 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Knicks | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Knicks | 49c | 91.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 532 | 50.4%268 W · 264 L | -19.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…d651backed Knicks | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Knicks | 50c | 79.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Pacers | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +6.4wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Pacers | 50c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Pacers | 54c | 74$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Pacers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 356 | 60.4%215 W · 141 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1a…ccb1backed Pacers | 53c | 68.09$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Pacers | 49c | 62.38$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 575 | 50.3%289 W · 286 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Pacers | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Pacers | 55c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3e…3d5bbacked Pacers | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6802…3f97backed Pacers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Pacers | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 243 | 34.2%83 W · 160 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…824ebacked Pacers | 55c | 19.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pacers (-3.5)this page
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 219.5Over won
- Knicks vs Pacers: O/U 224.5Over won
- Knicks vs. PacersPacers won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Pacers won
- Spread: Pacers (-5.5)Pacers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.