Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfdce6c889cbb51d1122f984dc399cc9bb5c3d37c6ff82b84033d8060d7c3182
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,433
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 281.97$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.02 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 51c | 264.33$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 50c | 188.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 27c | 151.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…3f75backed Yes | 39c | 148.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 131.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.28 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 67c | 117.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 48c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 52c | 101.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 29c | 99.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 91.9$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 85.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 72c | 79.02$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 26c | 63.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 61.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 54c | 56.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 28c | 52.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 48c | 47.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 46c | 44.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 61c | 43.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 42.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 51c | 40.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed No | 35c | 40.02$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…a889backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 174 | 57.5%100 W · 74 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 39.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 44c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 59c | 34.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed No | 36c | 30.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 28.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 70c | 27.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 63c | 27.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 37c | 27.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 61c | 24.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed No | 59c | 24.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 54c | 24.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 58c | 22.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 78c | 21.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 75c | 13.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.