Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcffc128fc570008d5b3264616f329a5bbe9febdf1a759fdd5a63c314cd4815e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,715
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,715 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 2c | 898.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 7c | 726.56$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 34c | 588.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 7c | 585.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 23c | 499.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.99 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf625…ae8abacked Yes | 5c | 479.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 65 | 61.5%40 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 8c | 269.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 10c | 230.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 226$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.33 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed Yes | 30c | 215.34$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 6c | 185.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 8c | 156$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 151.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked No | 76c | 145.94$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 14c | 142.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 16c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 44c | 61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 44c | 45.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71a9…707bbacked Yes | 43c | 42.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 76c | 33.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 27.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 72c | 17.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.