Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc58090b9f81eb4ce55774923dde9d7df6124a2e05b9a0454a0662a16602fac90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2695…60f8backed No | 74c | 727.82$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.24 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3204…b1dbbacked Yes | 57c | 672.61$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.62 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 47c | 465.87$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.57 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 369.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 32c | 367.03$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.59 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 346.16$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 247.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.13 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 227$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 170$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 141.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.35 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 138.26$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 135.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked No | 19c | 128.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 11c | 123.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 44c | 122.8$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 17c | 120.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 51c | 120.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.9 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 34c | 112$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 102.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.69 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 26c | 99.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.23 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 66c | 96.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 79c | 95.48$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…8795backed Yes | 22c | 92.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.1 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 28c | 79.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 35c | 74.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 70.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 16c | 69.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 50c | 65.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed Yes | 71c | 60.6$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 57.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 80c | 52.29$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 45c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 65c | 50.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 50.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 45.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e0…d772backed No | 68c | 43.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 74c | 39.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 60c | 37.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 77c | 34.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e2…86c6backed Yes | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 33.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 28.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 41c | 27.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 67c | 23.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 69c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 80c | 18.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…0e5dbacked No | 71c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 71c | 16.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf075…3f43backed No | 78c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 80c | 14.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.