Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d2537f127ec11736a44ff612e3d31b3cddb5098fd85176ad8700e58e92f522a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,049
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 14c | 429.24$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.48 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 408.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 374.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 258.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 257.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 18c | 201.83$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 196.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 25c | 159.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 13c | 150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 138.73$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 134.78$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 79c | 119.84$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 113.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be3…27a5backed Yes | 11c | 95.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +40%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 91.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 77c | 76.84$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b8…2d55backed Yes | 25c | 61.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 75c | 59.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 53.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 77c | 53.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 51.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked No | 26c | 51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 45.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 76c | 44.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 26c | 37.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5451…6f23backed Yes | 30c | 36.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 29c | 35.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 33.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 26.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 23.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 71c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked Yes | 77c | 23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 76c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52a…58b6backed No | 75c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 69c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 15.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed No | 76c | 15.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked No | 76c | 14.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10a1…7a23backed No | 80c | 13.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.62 | 33 | 84.8%28 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 79cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on May 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C or below on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on May 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on May 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.