TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$69,637

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes11c2,363$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.92,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa804…e636backed Yes1c2,313$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7440%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes16c2,300$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.2857614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes20c1,649$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.9453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes13c967.62$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.5528718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xade9…1990backed Yes12c838.85$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.061010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8278…9464backed No80c686.9$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7813250%66 W · 66 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+1.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27dd…b696backed Yes14c673.27$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.83644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes13c640.05$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0510843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes11c559.95$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes19c518.2$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1117135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes14c464.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4560523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf132…c706backed Yes14c459.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.9830813.6%42 W · 266 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes13c410.61$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.035427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes13c407.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.451,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes9c365.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes9c344.28$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.939,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…5d37backed Yes10c340.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.741225%3 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes15c324.98$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.251,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes17c318.78$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes20c311.68$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.529239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes14c296.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes20c243.63$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.092441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed Yes9c236.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6437533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7150…65d1backed Yes16c224.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5104…a114backed Yes14c222.31$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.16147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes11c210.2$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes14c208.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.447,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes13c207.54$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.2565934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf419…5f89backed Yes10c206.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2194919.7%187 W · 762 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb31d…b920backed Yes17c202.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9918035%63 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3e…e0f1backed Yes12c200.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.088013.8%11 W · 69 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes15c199.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3012624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes18c198.51$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.735846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No76c197.48$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4731124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes12c193.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes19c189.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.457,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x3a90…d8debacked Yes14c180$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.022321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes20c177.07$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.221,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes18c173.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.731,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c167.39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.862,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes14c160.62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.864918.4%9 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ef3…519dbacked No80c156.51$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes11c151.18$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2493837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bbb…246dbacked Yes18c150.63$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.741330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes19c149.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9617643.2%76 W · 100 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes12c149.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes19c147.98$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.955729.8%17 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes20c145.87$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4513042.3%55 W · 75 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c140.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.062,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes15c132.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.1745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf167…28eebacked Yes14c132.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.28520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid+62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes14c130.49$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.281637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes13c116.93$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7816437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes16c112.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3315131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes16c112.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.333250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes13c108.96$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6912147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…506bbacked Yes12c107.64$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.88185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa7…a32abacked Yes24c104.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13f4…93cbbacked Yes19c98.95$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.375729.8%17 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes19c95.68$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8119047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes19c88.52$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5418534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0032…e886backed Yes17c88.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513537.8%51 W · 84 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes18c86.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes17c86.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.251,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b31…852cbacked Yes15c80$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6825742.4%109 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc80…f224backed Yes16c78.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.591947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+27.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x988a…9e6fbacked No80c76.34$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes19c73.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7347738.8%185 W · 292 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes17c69.99$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7416944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed Yes15c69.65$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.741,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad7…cf8fbacked No80c62.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.586173.2%630 W · 231 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick72cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes20c59.61$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6735233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes20c56.05$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4115545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc8…c278backed No77c53.6$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6311…a111backed Yes21c53.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8328…18f8backed No75c53.08$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…a4a0backed No77c52.17$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc086…6882backed Yes21c48.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.122924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2676…32bbbacked No74c43.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.152100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+32.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff1c…5d37backed No77c42.06$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd72…9a13backed No77c41.97$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…5ac3backed No80c32.73$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked No78c29.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.481747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebc…6f63backed No76c26.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.25119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick29cpaid-88.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27b4…04f0backed No80c25.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.133100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+104.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No74c20.27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2797570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No77c19.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.413167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe027…e71ebacked No77c19.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.42475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec1…07a5backed No77c18.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2224768.4%169 W · 78 L+12.8wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6dd…c6b6backed No80c14.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.981947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.