TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,067
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,540

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,067 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfc95…0b9cbacked Yes1c17,281$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.861637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b96…3a38backed Yes2c16,350$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.99933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes1c3,915$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.394963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x55b1…c617backed Yes1c1,984$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No37c1,819$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.54037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x25e3…ab76backed Yes1c1,530$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.350%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3a…a709backed No58c1,165$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.195451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc629…c3e5backed Yes2c956.02$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.49825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38cc…f88ebacked No42c941.64$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.533638.9%14 W · 22 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+237.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes48c859.68$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.635,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No28c730.13$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.0760523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed Yes18c555$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.96943.5%30 W · 39 L+12.2wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+201.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes47c549.79$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3827047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No47c531.55$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.612,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4634…d158backed Yes76c516.75$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.41233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-49.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No25c434.75$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.0652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b78…e589backed Yes70c415.99$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.9537942.5%161 W · 218 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes46c410.18$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.295427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No29c320.03$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.922,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c319.83$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.061,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes37c318.82$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.031,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9193…a796backed Yes66c298.35$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.891741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No26c287$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.3895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No44c281.56$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No47c268.83$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.73,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes45c253.74$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes45c249.93$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4720534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfff9…a21abacked No55c241.09$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.328138.3%31 W · 50 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked No22c230.38$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.097729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes48c225.57$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.068643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes47c211.18$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2133139.6%131 W · 200 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed No44c206.92$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.097146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes65c200$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13057044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes50c197.39$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.75846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c0…e3e5backed No60c194.46$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.62181%17 W · 4 L+4.9wins+0.23per pick58cpaid+30.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0199…737abacked No35c194.41$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.74955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes48c192.2$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1410843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes48c185.51$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.045,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes51c185.26$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.3729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes44c178.32$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.111,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c166.29$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked Yes57c165.26$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8829751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes16c150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes65c148.09$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.529239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f2d…32c9backed Yes38c144.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.37616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-56.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked No8c136.2$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.32339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick28cpaid+51.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes59c134.9$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3445148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No53c114.83$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.261,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No52c111.78$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.212,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes49c111.61$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.22441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0201…adeabacked Yes50c109.97$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7944…ee79backed No67c109.49$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.882240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-36.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes44c104.94$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6945238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No53c103.15$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.932,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes47c100.24$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$576823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c99.99$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No46c99.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.992944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes38c99.79$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7719541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No45c98.41$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x420d…544abacked Yes59c98.03$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.845940.7%24 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No60c97.45$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7333567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes43c96.08$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.384037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8daf…ef60backed Yes45c95.84$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.041770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x661e…070cbacked No57c95.66$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.252356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes43c94.57$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes52c94.55$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes64c93.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5535233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c93.56$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.859,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes52c92.02$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes36c89.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.411835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes54c87.86$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.723250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes55c85.8$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.533855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed5b…a76abacked Yes50c83.77$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0819047.4%90 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes59c83.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5631442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a2f…7760backed Yes46c82.26$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.841926.3%5 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick26cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No53c81.17$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8298571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x050e…9ac6backed Yes50c78.88$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.631844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes54c78.81$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4361659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No16c77.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.9861752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No55c73.51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0828737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes50c72.13$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0713941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes45c72.02$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6226566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe90a…64cebacked Yes68c71.63$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.421546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc941…6bdcbacked Yes50c70.74$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes42c70.62$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3153547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa970…00c1backed No50c68.77$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed54…4967backed Yes46c68.67$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5949854.6%272 W · 226 L+46.4wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+20.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4df8…74cfbacked Yes58c68.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.66425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-56.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2255…1ac2backed Yes46c68.3$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No53c68.17$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0427167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No58c67.39$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.384170.7%29 W · 12 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+13.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes74c66.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.835628.6%16 W · 40 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes56c66.72$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.562544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes48c66.35$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.717140.4%69 W · 102 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0344…7f86backed Yes40c64.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.851435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.942,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8796…e255backed No50c63.57$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7911925.2%30 W · 89 L-14.1wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-37.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes23c61.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.519,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked No65c60$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2193734.9%327 W · 610 L-203.5wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-43.2%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.