TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,801
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,660

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,801 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes33c3,152$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,107.6730919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x162e…fe52backed No73c1,557$1,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,138.654037.5%15 W · 25 L-6.8wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-38.2%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes31c1,020$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.712544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c68…7936backed Yes60c975$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.4610784.1%90 W · 17 L+30.1wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+66%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes47c974.7$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.935,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No71c677.63$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.33,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No34c623.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.1212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No64c457.57$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0852155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes21c375.1$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.331,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfc95…0b9cbacked No9c370.87$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.491637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c354.7$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.471,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No3c343.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.486219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48ec…8f36backed No32c311.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.846943.5%30 W · 39 L+12.2wins+0.18per pick26cpaid+201.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes28c299.96$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.975846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No66c275.29$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.1931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x579d…247cbacked Yes6c258.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.157729.9%23 W · 54 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes6c256.99$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.712,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes37c250.93$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.8212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x759e…4d38backed Yes10c242.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.061816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b96…3a38backed Yes31c223.71$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.14933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes36c222.96$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.468643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef7c…74ebbacked Yes43c217$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+130%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c204.37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.062,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c201.37$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.841,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes26c200$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes24c195.66$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.4413424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x488b…d937backed Yes31c194.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.59955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No71c194.33$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.522,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No73c183.65$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No72c178.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.231,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0199…737abacked Yes59c161.67$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No31c161.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c152.38$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.321,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No71c143.66$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9653437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes7c143.57$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.522,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes43c141.31$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7965043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes15c134.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8322945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No28c123.46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.947,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes31c119.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.195733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes68c115.45$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2664333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f5…2b27backed Yes17c112.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2231442.4%133 W · 181 L+15.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c111.48$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.067,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x050e…9ac6backed Yes33c110.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.291844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes33c110.48$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.3519160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked Yes38c109.02$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f8b…a682backed Yes10c107.73$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.551921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked Yes68c107.26$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb25e…39aabacked No70c106.05$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes34c105.89$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3463538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38a7…d69dbacked No75c101.99$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.123549.4%116 W · 119 L-12.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1c0…646ebacked Yes28c100.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.62568%17 W · 8 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+37.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes32c100.32$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb12a…cb82backed Yes24c99.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.996823.5%16 W · 52 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No64c99.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.7472837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes28c97.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704963.3%31 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff9…fa6abacked Yes29c97.34$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.111747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes15c97.03$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.4745148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes30c95.11$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes28c94.66$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.164738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes31c91.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.346240.3%25 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes31c90.29$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.53855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…7465backed Yes18c90.24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.6435233%116 W · 236 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc17c…6390backed Yes31c90.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.17450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+14.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No66c86.36$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8334250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf10…d6f6backed Yes29c80.71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+70.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes71c80.21$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.661659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x37fd…68afbacked Yes24c79.59$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.35450%2 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+69.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No63c75.61$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47b1…5735backed Yes21c72.6$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+367%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No74c70$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.827771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No64c69.47$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5654966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfddb…4b77backed No71c68.38$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.551861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No63c67.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes33c66.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.852832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes30c65.96$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes41c65.02$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.361,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed No47c64.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4460523.3%141 W · 464 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c64$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No71c63.83$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.3529751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked Yes28c63.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7348743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d3…e2bcbacked Yes28c62.42$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1de…aadfbacked No75c61.47$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.956376.2%48 W · 15 L+7.8wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes29c61.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.5666926.2%175 W · 494 L-1.7wins0.00per pick26cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed No62c60.98$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…c3e5backed Yes39c60.6$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes27c60.13$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.91,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes42c58.55$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.962441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee3…0e6ebacked Yes30c58.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.12420.8%5 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db5…ff84backed Yes36c58.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.533333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf694…24e3backed Yes34c57.45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1911129.7%33 W · 78 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes33c56.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.714632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No70c55.62$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9327167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed No71c54.94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8315131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35af…8e95backed No68c53.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.797762.3%48 W · 29 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0be4…51d3backed Yes37c53.81$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd610…b3e4backed Yes49c52.14$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6716550.3%83 W · 82 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c51.32$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.959,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x036d…e888backed No75c50.39$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.937871.8%56 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes28c50.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.215047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8370…e1efbacked Yes20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4026540.8%108 W · 157 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.