Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd01060bf4606d11dbca723e46e76e435fc9e7bfc4c6d6ba3e824c04b5cf6a303
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,605
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,864
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,605 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 808.1$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e55dbacked Yes | 3c | 453.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +518.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 14c | 295.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 16c | 273.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 27c | 223.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.97 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 52c | 198$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.48 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 172.2$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 72c | 136.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 135$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked Yes | 74c | 122.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 24c | 121.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 113.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 16c | 77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 72.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 70$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 67.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.88 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 65.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…e67cbacked Yes | 57c | 58.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 71c | 53.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 47c | 52.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 59c | 50.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.74 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 58c | 49.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 42c | 49.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 75c | 49.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 48.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 69c | 42.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 41.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab1…e45bbacked Yes | 33c | 37.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 42c | 36.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…997dbacked Yes | 59c | 33.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 31c | 33.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 32.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 53c | 31.59$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 29.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 28.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 59c | 26.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 42c | 23.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed No | 69c | 23.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 70c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 57c | 18.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 17.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 15.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 76c | 14.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on July 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on July 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on July 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.