Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd02faf5adcfaffd8f02808dd2dfdff7080e657c468cf6c66a5b894098603d571
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Movistar KOI, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbde6…e8b5backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 1,385$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.06 | 300 | 50.3%151 W · 149 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Movistar KOI | 38c | 1,340$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.07 | 323 | 45.8%148 W · 175 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 706.74$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.15 | 1,609 | 48.4%779 W · 830 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Movistar KOI | 43c | 697.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d4…4e1dbacked Movistar KOI | 38c | 528.42$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 271 | 42.4%115 W · 156 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 455.28$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.56 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 448.42$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.4 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b63…4acdbacked Natus Vincere | 58c | 439.32$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.51 | 274 | 47.8%131 W · 143 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Movistar KOI | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 402 | 37.8%152 W · 250 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…b3c4backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 307.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Movistar KOI | 38c | 260$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f4…ea90backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 251.18$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.01 | 1,110 | 49%544 W · 566 L | +42.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 481 | 43.2%208 W · 273 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94a1…2075backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 250$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 270 | 50.7%137 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Movistar KOI | 36c | 240.71$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.65 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Movistar KOI | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 326 | 50.3%164 W · 162 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 187.5$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 362 | 46.4%168 W · 194 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 150.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Movistar KOI | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb92…b02dbacked Movistar KOI | 39c | 129.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 117 | 45.3%53 W · 64 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Movistar KOI | 44c | 126$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Movistar KOI | 42c | 121$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Movistar KOI | 38c | 115.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 115.56$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.91 | 820 | 44%361 W · 459 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Movistar KOI | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838a…0815backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 85.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 79.03$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.03 | 211 | 40.8%86 W · 125 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed Movistar KOI | 38c | 78.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -9.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…9a83backed Movistar KOI | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Movistar KOI | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 382 | 57.9%221 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Movistar KOI | 43c | 65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6912…2aabbacked Natus Vincere | 64c | 64.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98e…2f96backed Movistar KOI | 37c | 63.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Movistar KOI | 40c | 53.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed Natus Vincere | 64c | 45.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Movistar KOI | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 225 | 45.8%103 W · 122 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebe…5d9bbacked Movistar KOI | 44c | 33.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 407 | 52.3%213 W · 194 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Natus Vincere | 63c | 26.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Natus Vincere | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 124 | 58.1%72 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…1e6bbacked Natus Vincere | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MKOI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Group StageNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- LoL: Natus Vincere vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 WinnerMovistar KOI won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.