Serie A · resolved market
Will SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd04ed6db0f387954512b4f1e694fa46604b359ca70859e50e6225ea1917129bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2575…bf1ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,391$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 2,001$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.02 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…8f37backed No | 68c | 1,547$1,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…f416backed Yes | 32c | 1,545$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 95 | 56.8%54 W · 41 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,475$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.61 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 68c | 1,433$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.67 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 32c | 1,036$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.11 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 67c | 1,006$674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 249 | 39.4%98 W · 151 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d56…d1b1backed Yes | 32c | 938$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.16 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 67c | 803.39$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.55 | 229 | 47.6%109 W · 120 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 31c | 623.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.37 | 136 | 39.7%54 W · 82 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Yes | 7c | 542.86$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…c2eabacked No | 69c | 500$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 32c | 311.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…0c85backed No | 70c | 278.57$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa689…c42ebacked No | 70c | 273.96$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…0b58backed Yes | 33c | 271.26$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed No | 69c | 252.77$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 31c | 250.92$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.79 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9984…cfdcbacked No | 69c | 234.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…7251backed No | 69c | 224.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.64 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…f350backed Yes | 33c | 224.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…656dbacked No | 68c | 223.53$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cc…8675backed No | 69c | 218.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc56…1373backed No | 69c | 186.96$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a8…c498backed No | 69c | 184.06$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0499…c2a1backed No | 69c | 178.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6834…c8d3backed No | 68c | 177.69$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa58…daa8backed No | 69c | 176.81$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9943…54a9backed No | 69c | 175.36$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…20c5backed Yes | 6c | 169.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 25c | 155$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd1…928abacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…3d44backed No | 69c | 147.83$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 70cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked No | 67c | 120$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 23.8%15 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…223fbacked Yes | 32c | 94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 67c | 85.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…af0dbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed Yes | 32c | 76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 31c | 73.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 419 | 43.9%184 W · 235 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 68c | 68.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d14…261dbacked No | 69c | 68.49$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 32c | 66.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 207 | 41.5%86 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Yes | 32c | 63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.29per pick | 52cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 267 | 44.6%119 W · 148 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0a…70a0backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3481…6b3cbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3558…f167backed Yes | 28c | 60.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 136 | 50.7%69 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 67c | 59.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed No | 69c | 54.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 142 | 55.6%79 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…6f4abacked Yes | 33c | 48.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Yes | 32c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked No | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea68…ff92backed Yes | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x604d…4608backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18e5…260cbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…e70ebacked No | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 76c | 27.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed No | 68c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…078cbacked No | 69c | 23.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed No | 68c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…2bfebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 68c | 18.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 321 | 50.2%161 W · 160 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50be…bcb1backed No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5d…e5bfbacked No | 68c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…e342backed No | 68c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 67c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 447 | 53.5%239 W · 208 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…e878backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SS Lazio vs. SSC Napoli end in a draw?this page
- Will SS Lazio win on 2026-01-04?No won
- Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.