Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd09586ee6d7c486dfbbecdb087327e8b0df1389331a27ce3f0b7f71cf85929ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,410
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,697
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,410 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b56…715ebacked Yes | 15c | 5,524$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 16c | 4,850$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.33 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 4,175$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.32 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 14c | 2,948$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.87 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 4c | 1,661$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,571$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.76 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 15c | 1,305$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 15c | 1,075$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe4…3cbdbacked Yes | 3c | 828.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 5c | 577.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes | 4c | 512.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 3c | 479$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 5c | 429.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 14c | 324.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d06…30d8backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 266.6$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 13c | 231.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 14c | 205.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 5c | 205$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 13c | 204.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 14c | 138.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…60b9backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 14c | 84.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-22?this page
- Will Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?No won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.