Mls · resolved market
Will Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f3839ee183ada76c71fbaf2fbf42f97c2663db23926fd5dd650feca11252505
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 14,255$9,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,810.67 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 21c | 8,374$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 31c | 6,538$2,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,030.51 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 79c | 4,352$3,438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.84 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 35c | 3,999$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,419.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 79c | 3,593$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.81 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,111$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759.97 | 228 | 41.7%95 W · 133 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed No | 64c | 1,638$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.67 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 36c | 1,611$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.21 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c80…93b5backed Yes | 37c | 1,310$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.73 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 22c | 1,076$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.18 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 41c | 1,000$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.2 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 68c | 854.03$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.08 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 684.3$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.54 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 22c | 670.29$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 7c | 433$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126f…739fbacked Yes | 21c | 419.05$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 73c | 407.83$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.72 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 57c | 405.26$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.26 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed No | 68c | 356.61$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.39 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked No | 58c | 332.41$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.15 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 73c | 316.78$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.66 | 106 | 44.3%47 W · 59 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Yes | 43c | 283$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 202 | 52%105 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 37c | 245$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 10c | 239.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 219$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 80c | 208.55$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.71 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 36c | 195.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf188…4a83backed Yes | 48c | 186.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 79c | 139.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5c…2ba2backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 33c | 110.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3c…5607backed No | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 36c | 97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 90.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 79c | 87.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 67c | 82.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 102 | 73.5%75 W · 27 L | +13.5wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Yes | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 43c | 58.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3247…9488backed Yes | 21c | 57.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed No | 78c | 51.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 79cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8eb…0acbbacked Yes | 43c | 51.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…02ccbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0893…b132backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 37c | 43.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…553fbacked Yes | 36c | 39.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4336…492abacked Yes | 37c | 38.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Yes | 44c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7629…226cbacked No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 80c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe29c…a31dbacked No | 56c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…97cebacked No | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa625…fac6backed No | 68c | 19.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 73c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 108 | 40.7%44 W · 64 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 80c | 14.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nashville SC vs. CF Montréal end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-07-22?No won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-07-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.