NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Kings: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0b9d7537e7e51dde1db5f24c33740585ae710c37ecc02b6b35e3e80e13d8f0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,428
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Under | 1c | 8,958$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 217 | 4.1%9 W · 208 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 1c | 3,967$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 45c | 250$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 38c | 245$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.35 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 55c | 213$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.73 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7567…0923backed Under | 55c | 161$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.55 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Over | 46c | 130.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 54c | 119.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Over | 45c | 114$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Under | 55c | 98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2587…a117backed Under | 55c | 95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 49c | 79.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 204 | 47.5%97 W · 107 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Under | 55c | 75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 51c | 72$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 43c | 72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 194 | 42.8%83 W · 111 L | -12.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked Under | 55c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.9wins | -0.21per pick | 56cpaid | -35%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 55c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad2…d17fbacked Over | 45c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 43.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x194f…81b6backed Over | 45c | 41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Under | 55c | 39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Over | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b3…0d89backed Over | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Over | 45c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Under | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Over | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +35%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 52c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6c…ac71backed Over | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Under | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 43.1%59 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…1f57backed Over | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd43c…6003backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a4…581ebacked Over | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed Over | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 44c | 28.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Over | 45c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 42c | 27.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1a…ad50backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 40c | 25.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a94…31e6backed Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…a8edbacked Over | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89fe…4293backed Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…5793backed Over | 44c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 54c | 22.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 490 | 45.3%222 W · 268 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Kings: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. KingsKings won
- Ducks vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Kings (-1.5)Kings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.