Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0c45b8d64fbb71d52e3d9179864adaf0e81d40a5b3cde1dcd5f502b6d5bea69
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,348
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,819
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,348 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 54c | 478.8$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 42c | 338.34$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd297…2919backed Yes | 66c | 248.84$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 35c | 218.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 12c | 160.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 25c | 158.94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…3f91backed No | 19c | 152.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7564…0a12backed No | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 29c | 148.48$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 141.91$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 141.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 49c | 101.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 78c | 94$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 45c | 86.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 61c | 73.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.77 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 50c | 59.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 58c | 54.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8a…bdedbacked No | 25c | 51.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked No | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad2…9743backed No | 33c | 44.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 55c | 40.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked No | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 63c | 33.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 46c | 32.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 56c | 31.56$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa70d…63bebacked No | 44c | 31.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…4f54backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 54c | 27.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 57c | 26.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5276…800dbacked Yes | 60c | 26.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 58c | 25.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfc…31b1backed Yes | 53c | 25.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0d…0e0bbacked Yes | 57c | 22.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x139e…a5debacked Yes | 58c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 249 | 51.4%128 W · 121 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…b2b8backed Yes | 58c | 20.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea19…f354backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…d9adbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…ca2fbacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 67c | 15.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C or below on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.