Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0ef676bcda46e44a971a0966387fbc988b9e2f3470523ea79c5b7398ba48d6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,588
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,588 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 24c | 246.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 16c | 211.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 35c | 200.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.45 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 192.47$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 26c | 189$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 26c | 182.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 69c | 179.22$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 166.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 34c | 153.12$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 75c | 132.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 32c | 122.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 10c | 113.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 113.15$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 100.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 28c | 99.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed Yes | 18c | 98.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 170 | 20%34 W · 136 L | -21.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 97.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 73c | 95.02$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 83.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 74.68$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 74.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 72.41$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 61.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 22c | 55.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 67c | 55.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 31c | 52.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 29c | 51.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 73c | 48.45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 24c | 46.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 26c | 43.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 74c | 35.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 29.81$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 72c | 29.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 69c | 28.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 27.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 73c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 26.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23e8…9373backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 56 | 75%42 W · 14 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd73…3cc0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 69 | 68.1%47 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed No | 77c | 19.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 72c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.