Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeea8d27310e9e7ef670dd8cbeaa18d365c97a0dd365308c36cdbb449b86d916b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,024
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,024 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 79c | 1,500$1,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.67 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c9…66d8backed No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb39d…7a6dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,107$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.06 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 834.47$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 448.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.6 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 404.18$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd8…f169backed Yes | 12c | 375.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 18c | 371.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.44 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 17c | 368$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 359.8$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 20c | 333.14$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 21c | 301.4$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.92 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 19c | 295.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked Yes | 19c | 254.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 19c | 234.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 226.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 20c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 17c | 154.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 20c | 143.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 18c | 97.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 16c | 96.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 80.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd41…ea0bbacked Yes | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 80c | 79$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 19c | 79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…cc0dbacked Yes | 25c | 78.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 75.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 20c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 72.55$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 71.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 16c | 69.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 28c | 63.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 22c | 57.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 32c | 55.08$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…262dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 252 | 30.6%77 W · 175 L | +21.0wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe396…dce1backed No | 76c | 42.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 236 | 66.1%156 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 77c | 37.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 73c | 36.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad9…7e66backed Yes | 34c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -41%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 31.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…08e0backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2886…0405backed No | 78c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 79c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.