Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8dd079799e17627b7e7ea7e19f6997dbdbff93b54ce15e4d954bd6216dab07cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,990
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,990 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked No | 2c | 779.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 23c | 741.94$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.3 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 39c | 548.16$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.47 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 37c | 386.88$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.22 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 7c | 212.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 185.61$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.49 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 64c | 160.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 78c | 155.13$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f4…bb68backed Yes | 76c | 131.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd48…1e93backed Yes | 77c | 129.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 126.39$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 116.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 114.03$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 37c | 112.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 110.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 12c | 109.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 35c | 107.68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.19 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 33c | 100.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 39c | 100.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 40c | 95.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 37c | 89.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 37c | 79.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 60c | 77.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.02 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 41c | 75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 71c | 71.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 26c | 65.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 66c | 56.36$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 36c | 56.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 33c | 55.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.97 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 37c | 53.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 36c | 44.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 34c | 40.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 67c | 39.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed Yes | 67c | 39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0288…ee2ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 222 | 32%71 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0861…8e40backed Yes | 43c | 35.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 32.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 32.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 68c | 31.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 60c | 31.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 63c | 31.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 36c | 30.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 38c | 28.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…12e9backed Yes | 38c | 27.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2052…e9bbbacked Yes | 78c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 63c | 22.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 69c | 22.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 64c | 21.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 69c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4937…fbd0backed No | 61c | 17.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 59c | 17.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 63c | 16.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…9f60backed Yes | 78c | 14.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 77cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.