Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1077f39338bd3333d241110d5af8cf745c070a36bf1e2904b5ee4b637f09159
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 272.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 202.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 33c | 147.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 29c | 137$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.95 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 38c | 115.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 44c | 113.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.63 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 42c | 97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked No | 15c | 96.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 93.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 25c | 84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.24 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 24c | 81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 24c | 74.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.6 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 36c | 74.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 61c | 73.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 70.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.45 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 46c | 70.05$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 21c | 68.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 49c | 64.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 28c | 60.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 61c | 60$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 74c | 59.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 70c | 57.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 75c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ea…46d5backed Yes | 41c | 49.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 39.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 56c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 73c | 37.37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 66c | 30.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 40c | 27.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 74c | 27.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 25.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…e5c6backed No | 74c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 55c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 57c | 23.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 63c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 68c | 21.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 78c | 19.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 16.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 16.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 73c | 15.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.