Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cde0102dcde016cf9d70e591f5f74f5f026b9d4e37b26f04f38ecb2ee29a555
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,910
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 52c | 354.79$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.47 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 7c | 339.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 33c | 304.87$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 279.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 262.93$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd209…8dbabacked Yes | 49c | 262.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.06 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 70c | 231.63$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.6 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 202.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.45 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed Yes | 68c | 193.39$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 33c | 179.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.6 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 69c | 171.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.03 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a68…edd3backed Yes | 16c | 128.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 35.2%64 W · 118 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed No | 77c | 126.69$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 52c | 113.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 72c | 110.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 73c | 103.81$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.85 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 102.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 101.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.58 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 72c | 86.63$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 81.75$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed No | 74c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…12b4backed Yes | 71c | 74.55$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.81 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.1wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 72c | 74.51$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 41c | 73.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 70.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed Yes | 30c | 69.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 66.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed Yes | 80c | 57.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 66c | 57.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 72c | 51.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 41c | 50.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc26e…33cabacked Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5398…ceb0backed Yes | 68c | 46.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +10.6wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 48c | 45.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 45.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 55c | 41.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 33c | 39.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 28c | 38.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 71c | 35.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4624…d4bfbacked No | 71c | 35.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e0…03c7backed Yes | 60c | 33.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…d4e2backed Yes | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc45…57a8backed Yes | 62c | 32.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 53c | 31.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 39c | 28.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 75c | 27.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 73c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 46c | 25.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 42c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 74c | 24.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 67c | 23.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eae…ec7fbacked No | 66c | 23.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 58c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked No | 73c | 18.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 77c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0e…4ccfbacked No | 80c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.