MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd10b235486a682c37358ab884e2ab56bf9a157f71ecad6c42b1bc04c3570df7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Under | 14c | 9,873$1,382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,382.16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 3c | 8,887$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 48c | 3,334$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.32 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 52c | 2,692$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.31 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 2,581$1,264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,263.52 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 52c | 2,040$1,061 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979.2 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 1,885$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.62 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 1,850$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 1,837$882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$881.96 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 1,635$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 2c | 1,167$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 49c | 665.02$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.86 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 39c | 480.16$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.26 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 8c | 436.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 48c | 424$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 385.41$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.03 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 53c | 367.55$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.51 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 50c | 341.53$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.77 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 31c | 317.24$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.16 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Over | 50c | 200.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.89 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 183.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 48c | 179.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 170.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.95 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Over | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Over | 39c | 128.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.28 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 61c | 104$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8deb…1ef3backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 26c | 75.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 54c | 67.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 45c | 65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 33c | 60.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 61c | 59.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Over | 49c | 58.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 114 | 56.1%64 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Under | 33c | 56.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 61c | 54.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 57c | 51.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 61c | 49.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.14 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 51c | 43.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Over | 49c | 40.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 48c | 36.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 61c | 33.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 50c | 32.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 69c | 19.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Over | 52c | 19.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.