MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3364380b579df8a8617f78111c17e548ba81cf895290e72891f4d57f34d625ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,028
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,397
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,028 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 5,655$2,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,258.8 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Colorado Rockies | 67c | 5,581$3,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,736.37 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 51c | 2,735$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400.37 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4738…4687backed Philadelphia Phillies | 31c | 1,880$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.11 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 846.81$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.28 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 829.05$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.08 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 468.33$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 375.39$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.71 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 372.97$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.41 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 254.88$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 42c | 239$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.62 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 176.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 176.3$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.49 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 164.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 163.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 149.98$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 141.3$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7445…472dbacked Colorado Rockies | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.43 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 120$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 97.07$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 180 | 56.1%101 W · 79 L | +11.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 80.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Colorado Rockies | 22c | 77.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 76.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Colorado Rockies | 51c | 73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Philadelphia Phillies | 30c | 65.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.71 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 62.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Philadelphia Phillies | 43c | 58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Colorado Rockies | 54c | 56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 40.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 36.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Colorado Rockies | 37c | 36.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 33.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Philadelphia Phillies | 47c | 33.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Philadelphia Phillies | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Philadelphia Phillies | 36c | 29.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 23.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bc…352ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.