College Football · resolved market
Purdue vs. Notre Dame
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd127eb7c290289506f73892c93f4a0fd75fa3f6e7ff82603eddbbdaa687c5681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Notre Dameof Purdue, Notre Dame
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $128,220
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,220 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Purdue | 7c | 43,357$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.1 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…ab17backed Purdue | 0c | 5,540$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Purdue | 7c | 5,100$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Purdue | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…5584backed Purdue | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked Purdue | 7c | 4,350$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Purdue | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed Purdue | 6c | 2,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Purdue | 6c | 1,924$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.45 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Purdue | 6c | 1,340$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Purdue | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +14.8wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +58.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Purdue | 5c | 991.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.21 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a03…47c1backed Purdue | 6c | 833.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b6f…d9dfbacked Purdue | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Purdue | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | +9.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Purdue | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Purdue | 4c | 696$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Purdue | 6c | 688$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Purdue | 6c | 675$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x519d…37a1backed Purdue | 2c | 550$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Purdue | 6c | 445.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Purdue | 7c | 428.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Purdue | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Purdue | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…4eedbacked Purdue | 3c | 385.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0b…b4a7backed Purdue | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Purdue | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Purdue | 4c | 294$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked Purdue | 7c | 230.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…b867backed Purdue | 6c | 208.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Purdue | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed Purdue | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Purdue vs. Notre Damethis page
- Purdue vs. Notre Dame: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Notre Dame (-24.5)Notre Dame won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.